Ilia Tsetlin, Michel Regenwetter, Bernard Grofman
Many papers have studied the probability of majority cycles, also called the Condorcet paradox, using the impartial culture or related distributional assumptions. While it is widely acknowledged that the impartial culture is unrealistic, conclusions drawn from the impartial culture are nevertheless still widely advertised and reproduced in textbooks. We demonstrate that the impartial culture is the worst case scenario among a very broad range of possible voter preference distributions. More specifically, any deviation from the impartial culture over linear orders reduces the probability of majority cycles in infinite samples unless the culture from which we sample is itself inherently intransitive. We prove this statement for the case of three candidates and we provide arguments for the conjecture that it extends to any number of candidates.
INSEAD, Singapore, Ayer Rajah Avenue, Singapore; Department of Psychology, Univ. Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, IL 61822, 603, East Daniel Street, United States; School of Social Sciences, University of California at Irvine, Irvine, CA 92697-5100, United States
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